KM and Monte Carlo simulations
Stephen Bounds — Wed, 29/04/2009 - 01:22
The attached paper, "Using Monte Carlo simulations to predict outcomes of KM interventions" is a brief summary of the results of some exploratory research I have been doing in this area.
Monte Carlo simulations are a very useful way to explore non-deterministic systems using a combination of deterministic calculations and random numbers. In particular, the outcomes of my experimentation suggest that many across-the-board KM interventions are are risk of being dropped due to lack of results.
These untargeted interventions inevitably try to achieve smaller improvements across the board, typically in situations where there is a low probability of failures occurring. The Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that for a substantial number of organisations, even successful attempts to reduce knowledge failure risk by, say, 10% may have a negligible effect on bottom-line savings over a sustained period of time.
|KM and Monte Carlo simulations.pdf||130.17 KB|
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